Tuesday, January 1, 2008



First, HAPPY NEW YEAR! Second, nice job U of M - though I am a staunch SPARTAN, today - EVERY MICHIGANIAN IS A WOLVERINE. Hats off to the Florida Gators. . . anybody else, your Mittiot would be doin' the Gator Chump. Lastly, WHAT THE? - I'm thinking that the pollsters of the Des Moines Register have some 'splainin' to do. . .

Real Clear Politics

OR, maybe just the other pollsters are all wrong. . .

As your Mittiot has said before he's not one to dwell on a particular poll - BUT, this one is reportedly the "last poll to be taken prior to caucus." If that's the case, the trends (which are important in political campaigns) are all mucked up.

The CNN Poll over the same period has Romney up (but within the margin) - the ARG Poll taken a day prior has Romney WAY up. Adding to the confusion is that the Clinton camp has faulted the Register for over-inflating the Independents. According to the Clinton Campaign,

"The Des Moines Register Poll this time has 40% independent voters and 5% GOP voters in the poll when past independent participation has been 15% in 2000 and 19% in 2004, and the GOP has generally made up 1% of the vote. So they are depicting an unprecedented departure from historically established turnout patterns in the caucus. Under their model, only 55% of the caucus goers would be Democrats."- Mark Penn.

Did they do the same for the GOP poll? If not, why? (well, if so. . . why?) It's perplexing because the ARG poll (below) gives Mitt a huge lead among Indys, and if the Register's pollsters were inflating the the Indys' impact (as the Clinton camp contends) shouldn't Mitt be way, way, up?


Like I said, "the Register has some 'splainin' to do."

Regardless, the bottom line is it all comes down to organization. . . Romney is going to win Iowa!


~ so sayeth the Mittiot.

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