ROMNEY SUSPENDS RACE

ON THE ROMNEY CAMPAIGN:

My pocket went crazy during lecture today - about 15 minutes ago - as my cell buzzed. Call after call after call, I thought I better take a look to make sure something hadn't happen to my son or wife. From the list of the callers - Brownlow, Ray, Doug, Carol, Sachs - I knew it was campaign connected. I looked up at my students and I told them either Romney has dropped out, or McCain has had some sort of age related event that has sent him to the hospital. . . regardless, I knew it wasn't good news. . . so I called Brownlow and he let me know that Romney had suspended his run. A sad day in Mudville, a sad day for conservatives, a VERY sad day for Michigan.

Speculation? Your "suspened-Mittiot" will give you a little. Romney could beat McCain (he did here in Michigan and elsewhere) but he COULD NOT beat McCain AND Huckabee AND the Hufficrats AND the Hufficans AND the Media as it poured all over McCain and insisted on labeling Mitt a flip-flopper. Romney is too smart to fool himself into thinking that he (and his band of faithful Mittiots) could overcome those odds. Romney made the right decision to suspend his campaign.

What now? Hmmmm, you're asking me? Here's what I'd LIKE to see happen: "Romney 2012" and all that implies. If I were Mitt, I'd spend the next four years dispelling the "flip-flopper" myth through action, AND I'd work to focus the nation on the short comings of our "Broken Washington." Mitt could/should lead the charge to break our dependence on foreign oil, using his vast network to coordinate the states in an effort to do what the federal government (which includes McCain) has been to inept to do. Or, on the other hand, I might just go home and hang out with my family. . . your Mittiot sincerely hopes it the former. . .

A sad day in Mudville, indeed.

~ so concludeth the Mittiot.

SUPER ROMNEY!

ON THE SUPER TUESDAY RESULTS:

Fellow Mittiots - for those of us GMT -5:00 (or Eastern Standard) . . . IT'S LATE! So, I'll not attempt to give some mildly coherent breakdown of the positives versus the negatives and the clear path to victory that certainly exists for the inevitable outcome of a Romney triumph sometime late in May as the last delegate is awarded. . . in short, I don't have the energy to "spin." Not to the degree that the Hufficans, Hufficrats and MEDIA do, anyway.

So, I'll leave you with something to ponder. . .

WHERE IS HUCKABEE GOING TO GAIN DELEGATES NOW? AND WHERE IS MCCAIN A SHOE-IN (Well, besides Mississippi and Vermont respectively)?

THIS NOMINATION IS ANYTHING BUT OVER - AND WITH CPAC, A STRONG FINANCIAL BACKING AND, A CONTINUATION OF THE CIRCLING THE CONSERVATIVE WAGONS AROUND ROMNEY, THERE WILL BE A BROKERED CONVENTION (IF NOT A CLEAR ROMNEY NOMINATION) COME SEPTEMBER. . .

Now, go to bed.

~ so sayeth the Mittiot.

PS. A muffled shout out to the MI-ND crew, nice job! Could have used you in WV.

COME ON OL' SUNSHINE STATE!

ON THE FLORIDA PRIMARY:

H'OLA, MI MITT-IGOS! Just wanted to let y'all know I ain't dead - just "dead tired." Had some yard signs to pick up. . . and save for the November General. [Sachs: I don't give a rip if you are in Florida, I'm NOT gathering the 4x8's in 1 degree weather - that's your frickin' job!]

On the Florida campaign, Mitt's looking good. Any short lived bump from South Carolina (or Nevada or Mitt-chigan, for that matter) is all but gone and the voters of the Sunshine State are looking at the candidates based on their message, track record, and capability. Which, is why Mitt is looking good! Latest polls (see below) have the candidates neck-in-neck and are wildly fluctuating. . . the trends, however, appear to be coming home. It's amazing what happens when "Republicans" are the only genre' voting in a REPUBLICAN primary.

The big question from the fellow Mittiots is, "What CAN I do to help the effort in FL?" Well, if you live in Florida, display your support unabashedly for our Mittster. BUT, if you are outside of Florida and primary has come and gone or will be in the next couple of weeks - THE MOST IMPORTANT THING YOU CAN DO TO HELP GET MITT TO THE WHITE HOUSE IS CLICK ON ONE OF THE LINKS BELOW:

PHONE CALLING

FUND RAISING

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ON THE POLLS IN FLORIDA:

Here's the buzz - your Mittiot received in his old in-box today:

New InsiderAdvantage Florida GOP Poll

SOUTHERN POLITICAL REPORT

Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_123_160.aspx January 23, 2008 — For the latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Florida GOP poll results, click here to see Matt Towery as he reveals the new GOP leader via his latest webcast.

24 Romney 19 Giuliani 18 McCain 12 Huck 7 Paul 5 Other 15 Undecided

PPP Poll: Romney Takes Florida Lead After Thompson Exit

POLITICAL WIRE

A new Public Policy Polling survey http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Florida_Release_012308.pdf in Florida -- the first taken after Fred Thompson ended his presidential bid -- shows Mitt Romney leading among Republicans with 28%, followed by Sen. John McCain at 25%, Rudy Giuliani at 19% and Mike Huckabee at 15%.Key finding:"The key to Romney's lead is the immigration issue. 15% of the state's GOP voters listed immigration as their biggest concern and within that group, 50% support Romney compared to just 14% for McCain. It isn't the biggest issue in the state -- the economy and the war in Iraq were listed by more respondents -- but it is the one creating the greatest separation between one candidate and the rest of the pack."

Poll: Fading Rudy ST. PETERSBURG TIMES BUZZ BLOG Adam C. Smith http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2008/01/poll-tables-ple.html#more

It’s Mitt Romney vs. John McCain in the final stretch of Florida’s crucial Republican primary. A new St. Petersburg Times poll shows the former Massachusetts governor and Arizona senator neck and neck among Florida Republicans, while Rudy Giuliani’s Florida-or-bust strategy has been a bust. Among Florida voters likely to vote in Tuesday’s primary, 25 percent are backing McCain and 23 percent Romney, a statistical tie, while Giuliani and Mike Huckabee were tied for third place with 15 percent each. In Florida’s odd candidate-free, campaign-free Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton is trouncing Barack Obama by 19 percentage points in a race with stark racial divisions. The poll found 42 percent backing Clinton, 23 percent supporting Obama and 12 percent former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. But it’s the volatile GOP race the nation is mainly watching, as Florida Republicans stand to have a huge influence over which candidates have a shot at competing as nearly two dozen states vote on Feb. 5. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani staked his candidacy on Florida, and even with 27 percent of Florida Republicans saying they might change their minds, it looks like a bad gamble. "Giuliani for all intents and purposes has virtually no chance to win,’’ said pollster Rob Schroth, noting the difficulty of overtaking two other candidates comfortably ahead. The survey was conducted Jan. 20-22 for the St. Petersburg Times, Bay News 9 and the Miami Herald. It was conducted by telephone from a list of registered and frequent voters in Florida who described themselves as likely to vote Jan. 29. The full sample of 800 interviews has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent, while the margin of error for the Democrats is plus or minus 5.4 percent and for the Republicans it's 5.1 percent.

Romney Team –

I wanted to give you the heads up on the call from home info for Florida. As most of you know the Governor is up by a small margin but gaining momentum in the Sunshine State. Here is a very effective way to get folks in your respective communities involved. In Michigan this really turned the tide, and it was heartening to see the massive number of calls coming in from all over the country.

Pass this info along to your lists and encourage folks to call from home and help Mitt win Florida!

Thanks so much, Jason

The last note was from Jason McBride, our Team Romney - Michigan campaign leader. He, too, is down in sunny Florida - though you wouldn't know it. According to the Michigan team, "you don't get a chance to see the sun when you're making phone calls all day. . ." Let's give them a hand and contribute to the effort in contacting 400,000 Floridians in 4 days! THE BOTTOM LINE FELLOW MITTIOTS: WE CAN WIN THIS NOMINATION RIGHT HERE - RIGHT NOW - BY STEPPING UP! JOIN YOUR MITTIOT. . . LET'S WIN THIS THING!

ON THE MEDIA COVERAGE:

Just a little reminder to our media friends out there hoping to shape the outcome of this nomination by injecting opinion where the simple facts will do: It is not an issue as to whether we like Mitt Rommney - REPUBLICANS LOVE MITT ROMNEY - it is an issue as to whether the Liberal Media, Hufficrats and Hufficans do. . . they do not, and they (YOU) continue to perpetuate every negative hit, contrived or not, they (YOU) can to bring Romney down. They (YOU) could not in Wyoming, they (YOU) could not in Nevada, they (YOU) COULD NOT IN MICHIGAN, AND THEY (YOU) WILL NOT IN FLORIDA! Romney is going to win the Sunshine State and you (YEAH, YOU) can take that to the bank.

ON THE DEM PRIMARY:

Frankly, your Mittiot has been watching the dem race just as closely as the GOP race. Why? It's my job. . . for some reason, I've got students who aren't yet smart enough to know the democrat party is outta ideas. . . AND, unlike, my more liberal fellow faculty - I do not try and "correct" their leanings or reprogram their ideologies (cough - DELAWARE - cough, cough - UNIVERSITY - cough). So, we look at both the dem race and the GOP race. However, your Mittiot was a little more then tickled to watch Bill Clinton give the Media "what for" regarding what I mentioned above - perpetuating the story they want to print rather then the true story of the campaign... I think back to the "He's a Mormon 'problem'" hype of the Media - and got a chuckle. Today, I witnessed Bill taking the "Media" to task for perpetuating the split in the dem party via race and gender. . . I hope they keep it up. When Hillary is nominated, maybe the GOP can pull more then 2 of 10 African-Americans to the GOP. . . seeing as how the dem party has done such a great job in fostering "equity" among the "races." In a party of factions that love to rail against the "white, male, capitalist" what did you expect would happen when someone other than a white, male, capitalist was sure to be the dem nominee. . . WAKE UP - if you believe there is only "one race" the HUMAN RACE - if you believe that it takes EQUAL PARTS woman and man to make a family - if you believe there are no workers without businesses and no business without workers, then WAKE UP and join the GOP.

ON THE LATEST FLORIDA CLIP:

NOW, LET'S WIN THIS THING!

~ so sayeth the Mittiot.

MITT-CHIGAN!

ON THE ROMNEY VICTORY IN MICHIGAN:

Your Mittiot had another press interview re: the Michigan Primary - not as the Mittiot - but as the PoliSci Instructor from the Battle Creek area. The Coldwater Record, (small town, less leading, a smidgen less liberal) wanted to know my thoughts. It was damn difficult as a staunch Romney supporter to put the pale "consensus" probables of the primary forth - but I did. Your Mittiot, a big droopy-eyed from hangin' at the victory party in Southfield, wanted to blurt - "MITT WON BECAUSE MICHIGAN LEARNED ITS LESSON!" - but I was a bit more composed. In a round about way, I let the reporter know that "organization" was the key - everyone knew it, everyone on the inside knows it - Mitt had us at "Hello." I, also, think I made the point (as I did with the BC Enquirer) that this is about GOP delegates - NOT STATES, and Mitt is the candidate best positioned to capture the majority of delegates. . . As such, we'll fight on regardless of S.C. or FL's outcome. . . and in the end we may look back and think, "Hmmmm, Wyoming. . . who knew?"

ON THE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY:

Speaking of organization, Mitt does have a good organization in SC. I believe he can win South Carolina, as he'll get a bump from MI - and that'll pull him "close." What the Thompson supporters do to the Huckabee numbers still remains to be seen. Will there be a consensus of conformity around Huckabee by the Evangelical Conservatives? Will the "Thompson Strategy" pay off? If there is a indecision among the Evangelical GOP voters - Romney's in pretty good shape. Let's not forget, though the Media might want to spin differently, Romney is not unattractive to the pro-family voter. AND, he has done a fine job of picking up some of the Evangelical leaders in South Carolina already. So, Mittiot, what'll happen?

I believe, Romney is hedging his bets with the prediction that McCain wins (or will win) South Carolina. This is smart, as it gives a little cover and a lot of political pause for the GOP faithful. If Mitt moves up into second place behind McCain - which I predict he will - the Evangelicals with have to make a decision to what they want to do: Stick with Huckabee on principle and give McCain a win - or hedge their bets to a more palatable conservative. In any event - claiming McCain will be the winner in a close election in the Great Palmetto State - is as politically smart as pushing - DRUMMING - the rhetoric that "the race is so close in Michigan, independents and dem cross overs will decide the outcome" in hopes of enticing such an outcome. It didn't happen, BUT it was a fine strategy. There was just enough intrigue and apathy on the dem side to keep 'em battling within their own ballot - or at least keep them home all together. THANK GOD.

An open note to Saul Anuzis" COULD WE PLEASE GO BACK TO A CLOSED SYSTEM? [Which reminds me. . . an open note to Jack Lessenberry: Republican's are not "afraid of independent minded voters" (lumping "dem crossovers" as "independent thinkers" is a bit of a stretch) - we love 'em when they choose our Republican candidates come the GENERAL ELECTION - BUT for a PARTY nomination, wouldn't it make sense that the members of the PARTY choose the candidate who best represents the PARTY? ]

So, Mittiot, in SC, WHAT WILL HAPPEN? We'll McCain looks like he'll probably win South Carolina, of course - wink, wink, nod, nod.

~ so sayeth the Mittiot.

VICTORY IN MICHIGAN

ON THE ROMNEY CAMPAIGN:

We can breakdown the campaign victory tomorrow. . . as for tonight, I'm going to soak it in - tomorrow, it's back to work!

TO VICTORY!

~so sayeth the Mittiot.

ROMNEY ON TASK - UPDATE (1/11)

ON THE FOX S.C. DEBATE:

"I have received more votes for President than any other candidate on the Republican side." - Mitt Romney

AND YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY CORRECT, GOVERNOR! - The Mittiot

Governor Romney was on task tonight. He was sharp with a great command of the economic, social, and security issues this country faces. . . In short, Mitt Romney continues to prove himself as the multifaceted candidate we need to address ALL the challenges this country faces. And, it is a FACT, that so far the Republicans who have voted in this nomination process have given Mitt the lead in votes AND DELEGATES. Allow me to continue to post the "After 3 Events Results:"

The vote numbers, by the way, have gone up as more precincts have reported. . . Romney is still up by some 1500 votes - and this doesn't include the Wyoming victory (not because your Mittiot is discounting the Big Sky voters, but because I couldn't find a vote number on the web . . . feel free to email it to me).

But for all the good points Mitt made tonight - especially about Michigan manufacturing jobs NOT being lost forever (ie. Free-Trade v. STUPID-Trade) - your Mittiot knows this debate in South Carolina is going to end up being a study of how well Fred out "aw shucks-ed" Huckabee. Which, by all accounts, he did.

Your Mittiot has said in past blogs that I do not have anything personal against Mike Huckabee - he IS a likable guy. However, I do believe he is too liberal a candidate to right the wrongs of Washington. . . For instance, how would the former Gov. of Arkansas have voted on the S-CHIP fiasco. Would that step towards socialized medicine (that goes way beyond insuring poor-children) have been signed into law - "to raise hope" - by a Huckabee administration? What if, God help us, the dems keep control of the legislature? Would this be Huckabee (or McCain, for that matter) style "bi-partisanship"?

And, again, your Mittiot isn't here to try and dust Mike Huckabee - true, I have a clear dog in this fight, I'm a Romney guy - but this issue of possibly nominating a liberal candidate for office, makes me wonder why the heck I fight for the Republican party so vehemently. This is a conflict of ideology and party versus this particular presidential race, and if the party has to keep changing to get elected, then what are we "conserving?"

"But, Mittiot, that's just one example of Mike being 'sort of liberal' and that was from a while ago. You can't. . ." I can already hear it, but here's my second case in point:

While watching the Fox debate - I flipped through the channels during the commercial (or maybe when Campaign Carl was smirking another loaded question) and I just happened to catch Anderson Cooper on CNN interviewing former dem candidate, Bill Richardson. Seems Kerry has endorsed Obama, and Cooper was looking to see if Richardson was endorsing anyone. Richardson replied: "Sure, I gotta a call from President Clinton. . . I also got a call from Sen. Obama, and John Edwards. . . I EVEN GOT A CALL FROM MIKE HUCKABEE. Really? "I got a call from Mike Huckabee. . ."

[UPDATE: 1/11 - Transcript from AC360: GOV. BILL RICHARDSON (D-NM), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I am ending my campaign for president of the United States. CROWLEY: New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, a Latino, dropped out of the race today. It's just over a week before the Nevada caucuses, where the Latino vote may play a major role. Raise your hand if you think it's a coincidence Bill Clinton has been in touch. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "THE SITUATION ROOM") RICHARDSON: Well, yes, he called me quite a bit in the last couple of days. We talked. I talked to Senator Clinton. So did Senator Obama and Edwards called. You know, I even had a nice call from Mike Huckabee, who is an old pal of mine. (END VIDEO CLIP) ....... To be fair, this may have been just a "sorry to see you get out, ol' pal" call from Huckabee. . . but the context was in "courting endorsements" - The Mittiot] Governor Huckabee is looking for the endorsement of LIBERAL DEMOCRAT, Bill Richardson? As your Mittiot is fond of saying, "What the?" This is no way to win a GOP nomination.

Ponder this, we had a dem congressional candidate who ran against our now congressman, Cong. Tim Walberg (MI7), come to one of our local county GOP meetings. She came in to tout the need to support Ron Paul. Well, let me tell you something, that went over like a lead balloon. Dems have "No Cred" within the GOP - and they shouldn't. That's why we are "we" and they are "they." The fact that Mike Huckabee is courting democrats for endorsements (the fact that ANY candidate would seek such an endorsement) during a GOP nomination - leaves one to wonder who's voting for this guy. . .

Which brings me to McCain. Your Mittiot's been a little critical of Senator McCain, but again, I'm a Romney guy. And, "Friends" let me tell you - here in Michigan - the Senator has been attackin' as much as he's been attacked - more so. I'm doing my best to hold to Reagan's 11th, but some days. . .

In case you missed it (now, this comes from the debate tonight, so I'm not pulling out-of-date statements together to convolve some some anti-McCain message. BUT, in case you missed it. . .), I was left scratchin' my head - and this time it wasn't because of the Ron Paul non-protectionism, protectionist plan. Senator McCain said something to the effect of "I've never takin' special project money for my state. . ." [UPDATE: 1/10 - Youtube clip 7 of the debate, @3:45] and then he goes on to repeatedly tell America that his state is a major part of the illegal immigration problem [UPDATE: 1/10 - Youtube clip 8 of the debate, @7:39]. In his words, he's worried noting the pork and ignoring the problem. More illegals come through his state then any other. . . Has the senator at least asked for an appropriation to fix the fence? And, if so, where's the "leadership" been in getting it?

Call me "silly" but why the heck do I send a stack of tax dollars to DC if the people we - America - sends there aren't going to take care of the NATIONAL problems. I'm pretty sure, most Americans would not consider it as "pork" to seek an appropriation to fix the Arizona/Mexico border - YOUR BORDER, Senator. In fact, if the federal government did it's job and there was some leadership on this issue, I don't think the approval ratings of the US legislature would be in the low 20's. AND, I, for one, wouldn't have to wince every time I eyeballed my paycheck.

The bottom line: I believe this is what Governor Romney is speaking about when he says, "WASHINGTON IS BROKEN."

MITT ROMNEY IS THE MAN WHO WILL FIX THE PROBLEMS IN DC. And that, "my friends" is what MICHIGAN needs.

~ so "ranteth" the Mittiot.

ROMNEY ON TOP!

ON THE ROMNEY CAMPAIGN:

After three "GOP" events, ROMNEY LEADS THE PACK IN DELEGATES AND VOTES!

ON TO MICHIGAN!

Your Mittiot shouldn't have to remind individuals that these contests send delegates to the National Convention - this isn't the Electoral College. The delegates sent will chose the nominee.

Now, I'd be a liar if I didn't spill that I was disappointed in the N.H. results - not because we lost, per se, but because we had a chance to conclude the inevitable Romney nomination in the Granite State. . . now we have to wait another week.

There's no doubt the Michigan election will be tight - and with the Media's lips puckered tight to McCain's 71 year old tushy - anything other than a 10 point win will be considered a "loss" for the Romney campaign. So, we're in a tough spot. . . but ROMNEY WILL WIN MICHIGAN.

Why and how? Yes, McCain won Michigan in 2000 - but it was NOT a primary where independents (or democrats for that matter) had to choose one or the other ballots. In fact, the dems chose their candidates by closed caucus, while the GOP held an open primary. STUPID, STUPID, STUPID! Dems voted for their candidates and ours! And, wouldn't you know it - McCain the "Maverick" won. That shouldn't happen this time around.

Why not? A couple of things - the dems (though feebly) are choosing their candidates via the same primary as the GOP - and you can only vote on one ballot. So, again I ask, "For whom will the Indys vote?" Well, here's the 10 cent analysis:

In NH Indys were supposed to break for Obama - they didn't. Why? The Media had Obama up by 10 and "unbeatable" - and the Media had the McCain Romney race "tight." Well, if I could vote in either race as an Indy - I'd vote in the race that would have an impact, too. And that's what we got. Not that your Mittiot was certain we were going to win (you see, while we were actually campaigning in Iowa, McCain was cherry-picking his "most likely". . . don't forget, Romney beat McCain in Iowa 2 to 1) but I did believe we'd be within 2% - turns out it was 5. And wouldn't that 3% have made all the difference to the Obama team? Frickin' Media. . . but I digress.

Secondly, had Hillary lost by 10, she' d be done. BUT, she won, and now Michigan DOES matter for the momentum. It is very likely that Clinton - though the only candidate on the Michigan Ballot - could LOSE the Spartan State. Why? Because dems can vote "Uncommitted" and if they want to stop Clinton's MO, they better... and I believe they will. So, dems vote for dems. . . and so do the Indys.

Third, if it were an Obama/Clinton race, Michigan would be a lock (voting "Uncommitted" is a little tough to get excited about, AND in a tight race Hillary's being the only name on the ballot - doesn't leave much chance for Obama). BUT, Edwards is not going to get out - even though he took third in Iowa. Why? He has enough money to last until Michigan, he understands that he and Obama will both draw voters to vote "uncommitted", he can "share" a victory in Michigan (giving him a second, third and "first" place finish), but mostly, his national chairman is David Bonier - the former Michigan Congressman. There's no way Edwards will drop out before Michigan. So no dems for McCain, either.

Lastly, the MIGOP have been tweaked about the 2000 shenanigans for the past 8 years. Many believe, including your Mittiot, that because of McCain's underhanded win in Michigan, we've been ignored by Bush for the better part of his administration (Hey, I love the guy - and appreciate the tough love of DC - it'd be a lot easier to handle, though, if we weren't in a "one state recession.") and the MIGOP won't - MUST NOT - be fooled again.

And lastly, lastly, Mitt is a Michiganian. . . and a car guy. . . and has been plowing the primary field here for a longggggg time now.

We will take Michigan - Huckabee will get NO BOUNCE from NH - and McCain will run into "real republicans" in Michigan. . . which by the way, Iowa and NH, you have proven to be "unrepresentative" in the primary process - you taint the wishes of the party - and you should not be "first in the nation." In short, you blew it.

~ so sayeth the Mittiot.

NEW HAMPSHIRE PREDICTION (1/5 UPDATE)

ON THE ROMNEY CAMPAIGN:

Well, first, let's not forget Wyoming (UPDATE 1/5 - ROMNEY HAS WON THE WY CONVENTION). My sources say Romney is going to be OK for the Wyoming Convention - 2/5ths of the "Five Brothers" are on their way as surrogates - and conventions are a bit easier to predict than caucuses (though no one is certain of who is going to win at this point). Romney should win, he's the only top-tier candidate to campaign there, and that does matter. . . Expect a mini-bump, but like the Tancredo endorsement, do not expect the good news to linger. Why? The Hufficrats and Hufficans (with which your Mittiot has now associated "Campaign-Carl") are hell-bent on a futile attempt to derail the inevitable.

As for New Hampshire, here's the order: Romney, Huckabee, McCain, and after the Bronze? Well, you know. . . by the way, so does McCain.

"But Mittiot, the polls don't reflect it. . . look at ARG." Yeah, I looked at the NH ARG Poll - I also looked at the ARG Poll for Iowa before the caucus. . . ARG Sucks! Look at the Suffolk Poll (which is the most recent poll) and trust the locals. . . like the Des Moines Register.

Why the order predicted? The conventional wisdom is that McCain's support comes from a lot of Indys. Unfortunately for the "Maverick," so does Barrack Obama's. Like Michigan, you only get to vote for a Republican OR a Dem in the NH Primary. And, "Who do you think the Indys will break towards?" Smart money says "Obama" before McCain.

Secondly, believe it or not, there are Evangelical Christians in Hew Hampshire - maybe not 60% of the primary voters, but they are there. We've seen how well McCain does with that group. . . as in "off the medal podium" (cough, cough, 4th Place cough). But, will these individuals break towards Romney? Many will, but many. . . most. . . will probably support Huckabee. So without the staunch social conservatives and without the independents, who's left in the GOP primary? Well, the fiscal conservatives. . . and, the national security conservatives. Bhutto's assassination may have put the "Maverick" in the spot-light (though I'm not sure how his positions on Pakistan/terrorism differed from the pack - sans Huckabee), but now the focus has become the ECONOMY: $100 barrels of oil, a stretched social safety-net, home foreclosures, the potential for stag-flation, even recession - a real WASHINGTON mess. So, your Mittiot is betting "fiscal emotions" trump national security concerns (if not, "Amnesty" becomes an issue) and Romney wins.

Hence: Romney, Huckabee, McCain.

When McCain loses NH, Michigan becomes ALL SO IMPORTANT, as it is held BEFORE South Carolina.

Now, to further postulate, IF Clinton loses NH - look for the Indys to vote in the MI Primary much the same as the NH Primary: Obama over McCain. Your Mittiot understands that Clinton will be the ONLY individual on the ballot - but not the only candidate in the race, you can write-in, and "Obama" ain't that hard to spell. (UPDATE 1/5 - DEM CANDIDATES MISS DEADLINE FOR WRITE-IN. MUST DESIGNATE "UNCOMMITTED" TO SUPPORT OBAMA/EDWARDS)

If (again, "if") this is the case, Romney will have two victories under his belt (three, if Wyoming comes through) heading into South Carolina a mere 4 days later. The question is, will Huckabee bother campaigning in Michigan when he takes second in NH? Or, go right to South Carolina? Taking second, he may come to Michigan.

If he goes right to South Carolina this will be a dogfight and we could get Iowa all over again. (Do remember, however, Nevada is going on at the same time and Romney is doing well in NV - though the eyes will be on SC.) Romney has a good team in SC and could easily erase the Iowa speed-bump. If so, he's our nominee. If not, Florida, now, becomes the decider.

If Romney wins Wyoming(DONE THAT), NH, MI and loses SC to Huckabee - Rudy becomes a non-factor as all eyes turn to the "two-man race" in Florida (I don't think Thompson will hold on much after NH - he may make it to SC, but if so, Southern Baptists stick with Huckabee and Fred drops) . I predict Mitt wins Florida (IF all the above falls into place).

The bottom line: a Wyoming victory first(CHECK), followed by a NH victory are absolutely essential to Romney's inevitable nomination. All will be answered in four days.

~ so sayeth the Mittiot

WAY TO GO MITT!

BRING ON NEW HAMPSHIRE!

First, your Mittiot would not be able to sleep tonight if he did not point out that the Des Moines Register knows their polling. . . we here at Mittiot Central kinda got the feeling that our man Mitt was in for a second place finish when the campaign, itself, lowered expectations. Still, you carry the mantel and work 'til the end.

Your Mittiot is, however, very excited about Romney's strong showing where 60% - YES SIXTY PERCENT - of the GOP caucus goers were self-described "Evangelicals." I'm hopeful this fact isn't lost on those that want to simply undermine the inevitable nomination of Romney. Had Romney taken second to anyone other than Huckabee, your Mittiot would be nervous, but you can't out Evangelical an Evangelical in Iowa, we knew that going in!

The real story tonight. . ."McCain takes 4th". . . what is that? Let me see, there's Gold, Silver, Bronze, and. . . oh that's right, NOTHING.

Go get 'em Mitt!

~ so sayeth the Mittiot.

2 DAYS 'TIL IOWA!

ON THE ROMNEY CAMPAIGN:

First, HAPPY NEW YEAR! Second, nice job U of M - though I am a staunch SPARTAN, today - EVERY MICHIGANIAN IS A WOLVERINE. Hats off to the Florida Gators. . . anybody else, your Mittiot would be doin' the Gator Chump. Lastly, WHAT THE? - I'm thinking that the pollsters of the Des Moines Register have some 'splainin' to do. . .

Real Clear Politics

OR, maybe just the other pollsters are all wrong. . .

As your Mittiot has said before he's not one to dwell on a particular poll - BUT, this one is reportedly the "last poll to be taken prior to caucus." If that's the case, the trends (which are important in political campaigns) are all mucked up.

The CNN Poll over the same period has Romney up (but within the margin) - the ARG Poll taken a day prior has Romney WAY up. Adding to the confusion is that the Clinton camp has faulted the Register for over-inflating the Independents. According to the Clinton Campaign,

"The Des Moines Register Poll this time has 40% independent voters and 5% GOP voters in the poll when past independent participation has been 15% in 2000 and 19% in 2004, and the GOP has generally made up 1% of the vote. So they are depicting an unprecedented departure from historically established turnout patterns in the caucus. Under their model, only 55% of the caucus goers would be Democrats."- Mark Penn.

Did they do the same for the GOP poll? If not, why? (well, if so. . . why?) It's perplexing because the ARG poll (below) gives Mitt a huge lead among Indys, and if the Register's pollsters were inflating the the Indys' impact (as the Clinton camp contends) shouldn't Mitt be way, way, up?

AMERICAN RESOURSE GROUP

Like I said, "the Register has some 'splainin' to do."

Regardless, the bottom line is it all comes down to organization. . . Romney is going to win Iowa!

2 DAYS UNTIL VICTORY!

~ so sayeth the Mittiot.