Friday, January 4, 2008



Well, first, let's not forget Wyoming (UPDATE 1/5 - ROMNEY HAS WON THE WY CONVENTION). My sources say Romney is going to be OK for the Wyoming Convention - 2/5ths of the "Five Brothers" are on their way as surrogates - and conventions are a bit easier to predict than caucuses (though no one is certain of who is going to win at this point). Romney should win, he's the only top-tier candidate to campaign there, and that does matter. . . Expect a mini-bump, but like the Tancredo endorsement, do not expect the good news to linger. Why? The Hufficrats and Hufficans (with which your Mittiot has now associated "Campaign-Carl") are hell-bent on a futile attempt to derail the inevitable.

As for New Hampshire, here's the order: Romney, Huckabee, McCain, and after the Bronze? Well, you know. . . by the way, so does McCain.

"But Mittiot, the polls don't reflect it. . . look at ARG." Yeah, I looked at the NH ARG Poll - I also looked at the ARG Poll for Iowa before the caucus. . . ARG Sucks! Look at the Suffolk Poll (which is the most recent poll) and trust the locals. . . like the Des Moines Register.

Why the order predicted? The conventional wisdom is that McCain's support comes from a lot of Indys. Unfortunately for the "Maverick," so does Barrack Obama's. Like Michigan, you only get to vote for a Republican OR a Dem in the NH Primary. And, "Who do you think the Indys will break towards?" Smart money says "Obama" before McCain.

Secondly, believe it or not, there are Evangelical Christians in Hew Hampshire - maybe not 60% of the primary voters, but they are there. We've seen how well McCain does with that group. . . as in "off the medal podium" (cough, cough, 4th Place cough). But, will these individuals break towards Romney? Many will, but many. . . most. . . will probably support Huckabee. So without the staunch social conservatives and without the independents, who's left in the GOP primary? Well, the fiscal conservatives. . . and, the national security conservatives. Bhutto's assassination may have put the "Maverick" in the spot-light (though I'm not sure how his positions on Pakistan/terrorism differed from the pack - sans Huckabee), but now the focus has become the ECONOMY: $100 barrels of oil, a stretched social safety-net, home foreclosures, the potential for stag-flation, even recession - a real WASHINGTON mess. So, your Mittiot is betting "fiscal emotions" trump national security concerns (if not, "Amnesty" becomes an issue) and Romney wins.

Hence: Romney, Huckabee, McCain.

When McCain loses NH, Michigan becomes ALL SO IMPORTANT, as it is held BEFORE South Carolina.

Now, to further postulate, IF Clinton loses NH - look for the Indys to vote in the MI Primary much the same as the NH Primary: Obama over McCain. Your Mittiot understands that Clinton will be the ONLY individual on the ballot - but not the only candidate in the race, you can write-in, and "Obama" ain't that hard to spell. (UPDATE 1/5 - DEM CANDIDATES MISS DEADLINE FOR WRITE-IN. MUST DESIGNATE "UNCOMMITTED" TO SUPPORT OBAMA/EDWARDS)

If (again, "if") this is the case, Romney will have two victories under his belt (three, if Wyoming comes through) heading into South Carolina a mere 4 days later. The question is, will Huckabee bother campaigning in Michigan when he takes second in NH? Or, go right to South Carolina? Taking second, he may come to Michigan.

If he goes right to South Carolina this will be a dogfight and we could get Iowa all over again. (Do remember, however, Nevada is going on at the same time and Romney is doing well in NV - though the eyes will be on SC.) Romney has a good team in SC and could easily erase the Iowa speed-bump. If so, he's our nominee. If not, Florida, now, becomes the decider.

If Romney wins Wyoming(DONE THAT), NH, MI and loses SC to Huckabee - Rudy becomes a non-factor as all eyes turn to the "two-man race" in Florida (I don't think Thompson will hold on much after NH - he may make it to SC, but if so, Southern Baptists stick with Huckabee and Fred drops) . I predict Mitt wins Florida (IF all the above falls into place).

The bottom line: a Wyoming victory first(CHECK), followed by a NH victory are absolutely essential to Romney's inevitable nomination. All will be answered in four days.

~ so sayeth the Mittiot

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