NEW HAMPSHIRE PREDICTION (1/5 UPDATE)

ON THE ROMNEY CAMPAIGN:

Well, first, let's not forget Wyoming (UPDATE 1/5 - ROMNEY HAS WON THE WY CONVENTION). My sources say Romney is going to be OK for the Wyoming Convention - 2/5ths of the "Five Brothers" are on their way as surrogates - and conventions are a bit easier to predict than caucuses (though no one is certain of who is going to win at this point). Romney should win, he's the only top-tier candidate to campaign there, and that does matter. . . Expect a mini-bump, but like the Tancredo endorsement, do not expect the good news to linger. Why? The Hufficrats and Hufficans (with which your Mittiot has now associated "Campaign-Carl") are hell-bent on a futile attempt to derail the inevitable.

As for New Hampshire, here's the order: Romney, Huckabee, McCain, and after the Bronze? Well, you know. . . by the way, so does McCain.

"But Mittiot, the polls don't reflect it. . . look at ARG." Yeah, I looked at the NH ARG Poll - I also looked at the ARG Poll for Iowa before the caucus. . . ARG Sucks! Look at the Suffolk Poll (which is the most recent poll) and trust the locals. . . like the Des Moines Register.

Why the order predicted? The conventional wisdom is that McCain's support comes from a lot of Indys. Unfortunately for the "Maverick," so does Barrack Obama's. Like Michigan, you only get to vote for a Republican OR a Dem in the NH Primary. And, "Who do you think the Indys will break towards?" Smart money says "Obama" before McCain.

Secondly, believe it or not, there are Evangelical Christians in Hew Hampshire - maybe not 60% of the primary voters, but they are there. We've seen how well McCain does with that group. . . as in "off the medal podium" (cough, cough, 4th Place cough). But, will these individuals break towards Romney? Many will, but many. . . most. . . will probably support Huckabee. So without the staunch social conservatives and without the independents, who's left in the GOP primary? Well, the fiscal conservatives. . . and, the national security conservatives. Bhutto's assassination may have put the "Maverick" in the spot-light (though I'm not sure how his positions on Pakistan/terrorism differed from the pack - sans Huckabee), but now the focus has become the ECONOMY: $100 barrels of oil, a stretched social safety-net, home foreclosures, the potential for stag-flation, even recession - a real WASHINGTON mess. So, your Mittiot is betting "fiscal emotions" trump national security concerns (if not, "Amnesty" becomes an issue) and Romney wins.

Hence: Romney, Huckabee, McCain.

When McCain loses NH, Michigan becomes ALL SO IMPORTANT, as it is held BEFORE South Carolina.

Now, to further postulate, IF Clinton loses NH - look for the Indys to vote in the MI Primary much the same as the NH Primary: Obama over McCain. Your Mittiot understands that Clinton will be the ONLY individual on the ballot - but not the only candidate in the race, you can write-in, and "Obama" ain't that hard to spell. (UPDATE 1/5 - DEM CANDIDATES MISS DEADLINE FOR WRITE-IN. MUST DESIGNATE "UNCOMMITTED" TO SUPPORT OBAMA/EDWARDS)

If (again, "if") this is the case, Romney will have two victories under his belt (three, if Wyoming comes through) heading into South Carolina a mere 4 days later. The question is, will Huckabee bother campaigning in Michigan when he takes second in NH? Or, go right to South Carolina? Taking second, he may come to Michigan.

If he goes right to South Carolina this will be a dogfight and we could get Iowa all over again. (Do remember, however, Nevada is going on at the same time and Romney is doing well in NV - though the eyes will be on SC.) Romney has a good team in SC and could easily erase the Iowa speed-bump. If so, he's our nominee. If not, Florida, now, becomes the decider.

If Romney wins Wyoming(DONE THAT), NH, MI and loses SC to Huckabee - Rudy becomes a non-factor as all eyes turn to the "two-man race" in Florida (I don't think Thompson will hold on much after NH - he may make it to SC, but if so, Southern Baptists stick with Huckabee and Fred drops) . I predict Mitt wins Florida (IF all the above falls into place).

The bottom line: a Wyoming victory first(CHECK), followed by a NH victory are absolutely essential to Romney's inevitable nomination. All will be answered in four days.

~ so sayeth the Mittiot

WAY TO GO MITT!

BRING ON NEW HAMPSHIRE!

First, your Mittiot would not be able to sleep tonight if he did not point out that the Des Moines Register knows their polling. . . we here at Mittiot Central kinda got the feeling that our man Mitt was in for a second place finish when the campaign, itself, lowered expectations. Still, you carry the mantel and work 'til the end.

Your Mittiot is, however, very excited about Romney's strong showing where 60% - YES SIXTY PERCENT - of the GOP caucus goers were self-described "Evangelicals." I'm hopeful this fact isn't lost on those that want to simply undermine the inevitable nomination of Romney. Had Romney taken second to anyone other than Huckabee, your Mittiot would be nervous, but you can't out Evangelical an Evangelical in Iowa, we knew that going in!

The real story tonight. . ."McCain takes 4th". . . what is that? Let me see, there's Gold, Silver, Bronze, and. . . oh that's right, NOTHING.

Go get 'em Mitt!

~ so sayeth the Mittiot.

3 DAYS 'TIL IOWA!

ON THE ROMNEY CAMPAIGN:

Side note: Your Mittiot was reading his daily rag here in ol' Jacktown and it mustered a chuckle. The paper allows for "one-liners" in its op-ed section and one of the regular dems put in a quip about "knowing 2008 would be a good year." His rationale? Because it would be Bush's last year in office. Now, knowing the guy's a dem, I get the slight - BUT knowing that the dems haven't done crap-ola while holding the majority in DC, might leave one to conclude that because of GW, this country HAS NOT gone to hell in a hand basket. . . In other words, because of Bush being in the White House, 2008 WILL be a good year. Yep, this is the way I'm choosing to pass it on (though don't tell Huckabee, he might think that's an "arrogant" point of view).

What to say about Iowa? Well, Romney's going to win - which is what I've been predicting even with the 50/50 toss-up. Why? Again, the tie goes to the "organization" when it comes to caucusing. . .

Now, New Hampshire is a bit more art than science. It all depends on who gets out. Your Mittiot isn't losing sleep, however, I think the NH deal was sealed for Romney as soon as the liberal Concorde Monitor opined that Mitt "MUST BE STOPPED." Romney will win New Hampshire and fend off those late charges of desperation.

One thing that does have your Mittiot grinding his hind molars, is the familiar "run to the center" for McCain. . . He wants NH so bad, he's dropped his republican-reformation and has followed the path of milk-toast. Hey, I tell my students to "follow their heart" - if you don't like either of two parties, find another to support, BUT DON'T FAULT THE PARTY. The party is what the members want it to be - if you don't like it. . . get the heck out. Neither the Libertarian-Republican, Ron Paul, nor the Liberal-Republican, John McCain, are representing the true tenants via platform of the "Just-Republican" party.

Now, listen (or read) - Your Mittiot doesn't want to jump on the "negative bandwagon" - and I'm not. I truly do believe any of the GOP (yes, even Ron Paul) would be better then the alternative, and I'm right there come the nomination. So, what's the rant? Well, I guess the long and the short of it is that, to me, a victory is meaningless if we aren't gong to follow through on the principles that have drawn the partisans together. For your Mittiot, in other words, a "Maverick" has no business playing this team sport, and if McCain continues to follow this short-sighted path, he will, again, be stopped in the South. . . and rightfully so.

3 DAYS UNTIL VICTORY!

~ so sayeth the Mittiot.

ROMNEY TOPS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

ON NH POLL: Don't have to tell "The Mittiot" about polls. In fact, I'm the last person to which you have to explain early polling - but poliwonks know "trends do matter" - and Romney is doing well in the momentum building, EP, states (EP as in "early primary"). Gander at MI, look longingly at Iowa, and down right ogle NH (and take a squint peak at SC) - Romney's doing A-OK. _______________________________________________________________ http://www.boston.com/news/local/politics/primarysource/2007/05/romney_leads_in.html Thursday, May 17, 2007 Romney leads in second NH poll For the second week in a row, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is leading in a poll of New Hampshire Republicans. Romney leads the new Zogby poll with 35 percent, solidly ahead of John McCain and Rudy Giuliani who were tied at 19 percent. The poll sampled 500 likely voters and had a margin of error of 4.5 percent. A poll last week by Survey USA had showed a similar lead for Romney in New Hampshire. _________________________________________________________________ Here's the fear of your humble Mittiot: WMR peeks too early. . . smart campaigns know that momentum is best building to a lather at the end - not the beginning. Now, you don't have to pull a "Street Sense" and come from 18th to 1st with steps to go - but hanging back in a strong 3rd or 2nd isn't a bad gig. Nationally, we're there - we just have to keep trending in the right direction! Romney's a smart Jockey - we'll be fine. ON McCAIN-KENNEDY: Yeesch, eck! Your normally loquacious Mittiot is stunned! NOTE TO MCCAIN: The illegals cannot vote for you! Build the FENCE - NOW - worry about the illegals already here after the last gun-tower goes up. This is as clear as my son's Mickey blues, THEY AIN'T GOIN' ANYWHERE - THAT'S THE PROBLEM! So focus on the securing the border - before another gaggle of low-rung, would-be-burdens storms the Rio, bringing another Jihadist in with 'em. They'll be time to figure out what to do with the illegals - ONCE THE BORDER IS SECURE. ON RON PAUL: The Mittiot has already professed his love for our State GOP Chairman, Saul Anuzis! But for a little spicy-spice, I've got to disagree: Ron Paul WAS NOT the first to put forth the idea that we (the God -Lovin' U S of A) asked for the Caliphate mongers - who've been fighting this "Holy War" for 2000 years - to come kill 3,200 plus fellow citizens. In fact, right when the two-towers came crashing down and we all scrambled for something to do to make us feel more than helpless - I fired an email off to my higher ed brethren reminding them that "America is at its' best when things are at their worst" - I got an email right back stating something to the effect that our greedy control of resources and exploitation of the world's down trodden caused this massacre of 9/11. . . Oh really? We're screwing the Middle East? By how? - BUYING THEIR ONLY COMMODITY, the sludge under their feet? Seems Ron Paul and the liberals have a belief in common - "everything is the fault of the US and Global Capitalism" - a new spin on blamin' the victim! ~so sayeth The Mittiot. Here's one more to chew on: "Why are the dems more concerned that WE give-up rather than Al Quieda?" (~so"asketh" The Mittiot.)